The Fragility Index
The fragility index is a measure of how vulnerable a country or political system is to social and economic disturbances. A high fragility index indicates a high level of political instability, economic hardship and social unrest. A country with a high fragility index is typically extremely vulnerable to both internal and external forces, meaning it is prone to civil unrest, political violence and economic collapse as a result of even small changes in its environment.
The fragility index is typically calculated using a variety of indicators which are typically scored from 0 to 5 to reach a total score of 0 to 100. A country is typically considered to have a high fragility index if its score is over 65, while countries with scores below 65 are typically considered fairly stable.
Some common indicators used to calculate the fragility index include:
• Political inequality: This measure considers the degree of inequality in the political division of a nation. It takes into consideration issues like the unequal distribution of political power, restrictions on freedom of speech, lack of press freedom, unequal access to education, and the prevalence of discrimination by political authorities.
• Economic inequality: This measure considers the degree of inequality in the economic division of a nation. Variables considered include the distribution of wealth, income and resources, access to services like health care and education, and the impact of poverty and its alleviating measures.
• Social unrest: This indicator considers the prevalence of public protests and uprisings, ethnic and sectarian conflict, civil unrest and terrorism.
• Conflict and security: This measures considers the levels of military presence and involvement in country divisions, armed conflict and civil wars, levels of internal violence, and the presence of security forces.
•International engagement: This measures considers the degree of international support for a country and the levels of foreign trade and investment.
•State capacity: This indicator looks at the effectiveness of a nation’s government in providing essential services and meeting the needs of its people.
The fragility index is used to assess the vulnerability of countries to the consequences of crisis, such as civil war and economic collapse. Governments and international organizations can use this indicator to identify countries at risk and to target assistance to those most in need of support. The index can also be used to identify areas where policies need to be coordinated between different countries. For instance, military interventions often require cooperation between countries in order to be successful and the fragility index can be used to identify those countries which need to be involved.
