Sky-scraper Theory
The Skyscraper Theory is a thought-provoking concept that attempts to explain how the functioning of the world economy generates economic and financial cycles. The Skyscraper Theory was first presented in the book “Cycles of Boom and Bust” by economist Robert Prechter and provides insightful explanations for large-scale economic cycles such as Stock Market crashes, recessions, and depressions. The basic idea behind the Skyscraper Theory is that economic cycles can be seen as a building process and a destruction process.
The building process begins when people start to become more optimistic about the future, which causes a “boom” in the economy. Entrepreneurs recognize this increase in confidence and start building new businesses, which create jobs, as well as new industries and services. This causes a chain reaction as people now have more money to spend on goods and services, which in turn stimulates the economy. During this period, there is usually an increase in infrastructure such as bridges and roads, as well as the development of more skyscrapers.
The destruction process occurs when the pace of growth begins to slow and people become less optimistic about the future. This causes a “bust” in the economy as businesses can no longer sustain the growth and start to fail. This leads to job losses and people having less money to spend, which causes a depression. During this period, many of the newly built skyscrapers are abandoned and the infrastructure built during the boom period deteriorates as there is no money to maintain it.
The Skyscraper Theory provides an interesting analogy for understanding the boom and bust nature of the world economy. It suggests that the boom period can be seen as a time of construction, where new ideas and businesses have time to develop, while the bust period is analogous to the destruction of the existing infrastructure and businesses. This analogy can help investors and economic analysts gain insight into the macroeconomic cycle of prosperity and depression.
Prechter’s Skyscraper Theory has become increasingly popular in recent years, with many economists using it to better understand and predict economic cycles. The simple yet effective concept has captured the attention of economists, investors and laypeople alike, who are looking for ways to better understand the complex world economy. The Skyscraper Theory offers an interesting and thought-provoking perspective on economic cycles and is sure to be studied and debated for many years to come.