Interpreting Futures Markets
A futures market is a financial exchange in which people trade futures contracts that do not require delivery of the underlying asset. A futures contract specifies the quality and quantity of an asset that someone agrees to buy or sell at a certain price, at a certain time in the future. These markets are used to speculate on the future price of various commodities, such as oil and gold. Futures markets can also be used by producers and consumers of certain products as a way to hedge against future price movements.
When entering a futures market, it is necessary to understand basic terminology. One of the most important terms is basis. This is the difference between the price of the futures contract and the price of the underlying asset. It is an indication of whether the market is in backwardation or contango. Backwardation is when the basis is less than 0. This indicates that there is an expectation that the underlying assets spot price will rise before the expiration date of the futures contract. Contango is when the basis is greater than 0. This means that the spot price of the underlying asset is expected to decline before the expiration date of the futures contract.
It is also important to understand the concept of margin. When entering a futures contract, one party is obligated to pay the other party the total profits, losses, and fees associated with the contract. To ensure that this money is available, a margin is posted. This enables the other party to be paid in the event the contracts terms are not met.
Futures markets are also subject to manipulation. This is when a party attempts to control prices and hinder other traders from taking action. This can be done by using high-frequency trading, predatory limit setting, spoofing, and wash trades.
It is important to understand the fundamentals of futures markets before entering one. A full understanding of the terms and concepts involved, and the potential for market manipulation, can help to ensure a successful trading experience.
Finally, it is important to remember that futures markets are inherently risky. They can offer the chance for large profits, but those same profits can be quickly wiped out if the market turns against you. Being aware of this risk and having an appropriate risk management plan in place is the key to successful trading in futures markets.