INTRODUCTION
The Delphi Method is a method experts use to anonymously provide information and reach a consensus. It is named after the Oracle of Delphi, the ancient Greek society that was known for taking input from a council of experts to make political and military decisions. The Delphi technique is used in a variety of fields, including research, market analysis, product development, and group decision-making.
The Delphi technique was first developed in the 1950s as a means for obtaining consensus from experts in the aviation industry. It was introduced in the academic world in the 1970s, and it has become a standard tool for synthesizing the opinions of subject matter experts (SMEs) and for reaching agreement in areas where consensus-building is required.
HOW IT WORKS
At the core of the Delphi method is a process of gathering and collating information from a group of experts, who answer anonymously without knowing the responses of the other experts. This process fosters independent thinking, which minimizes the influence of one individual on the outcome and increases the reliability of the results.
The Delphi technique typically involves the following six steps:
1. Identify Experts: Identify the experts who have the knowledge and expertise to inform the decision-making process.
2. Establish Goals: Establish the purpose of the study and the specific questions that need to be answered.
3. Gather Data: Gather data from the experts by means of questionnaires, surveys, interviews, and other tools.
4. Analyze Data: Analyze and collate the input received from the experts into a final report and/or action plan.
5. Compare Results: Compare the results of the expert feedback to each other and against the goals of the study.
6. Reach Consensus: Once the results of the initial round of feedback have been analyzed, the experts are provided with the results of the initial round and asked to provide modified responses, if necessary, in order to reach consensus.
Application
The Delphi method is used in a variety of fields, including research, market analysis, product development, and group decision-making.
Within research, the Delphi method is often used to solicit consensus from experts in the fields of organization development, public policy, and public health. For example, it is used to gain a better understanding of the challenges facing the healthcare system in developing countries, or to determine the strategic priorities of a startup company.
In the realm of market analysis, the Delphi method can be used to identify trends, conduct needs assessments, and measure customer satisfaction. For example, it can be used to determine customer preferences for a new product launch or to assess the impact of a newly introduced marketing campaign.
The Delphi method can also be used to assess the feasibility of product development projects. For example, it can be used to evaluate the various elements of a prototype product and to identify areas of improvement.
Finally, the Delphi method can be used to reach agreement within a group of decision-makers. For example, it can be used to determine the priorities of a team or organization or to identify areas of agreement among participants in a negotiation process.
CONCLUSION
The Delphi method is a powerful tool for collecting and synthesizing the opinions of experts in order to reach consensus. It is used in a variety of fields, including research, market analysis, product development, and group decision-making. The process typically involves the identification of experts, gathering data from the experts, analyzing the data, comparing the results, and reaching consensus. By capitalizing on the wisdom of the group, the Delphi method provides a reliable and unbiased way to reach agreement in contexts where consensus-building is necessary.
