Long-term International Capital Flow
As has been seen throughout history, the flow of capital moves through international channels as people and corporations seek higher returns on their investments. It has always been a large part of the global economy and is still a cornerstone of the financial markets. International capital flows affect national economies and their central banks in various ways. For instance, when a country experiences large inflows of capital, its currency will generally appreciate, leading to an increase in imports and consequently a current account deficit. On the other hand, large outflows can lead to a decrease in the currency’s value, thus reducing imports and leading to a surplus in the current account.
International capital flows are a major source of funding for developing countries, many of which are unable to generate enough domestic resources to finance the investments needed for economic growth. Countries that can attract capital from abroad generally do better in terms of economic growth and development. Capital inflows can replace capital that is not available domestically, enabling economic growth and helping business expand. This can also have a positive ripple effect on the rest of the economy, as it leads to increased productivity and employment opportunities.
The total amount of international capital flows into and out of countries is difficult to measure accurately, with estimates varying considerably between different sources. Generally speaking, according to the International Monetary Fund, global net capital flows peaked in 2007 at around US$13 trillion, before quickly shrinking to under US$5 trillion during the economic downturn of 2008-2009. Since then, international capital flows have returned to pre-financial crisis levels, with net flows estimated at around US$6 trillion in 2016.
A key factor in the direction and scale of international capital flows is investor sentiment. Under normal circumstances, countries will usually attract foreign investments if they are seen as having a sound and effective economic policy, stable financial markets and a legal framework in place to protect the investments. However, uncertainty in the global economy can lead to a reversal in capital flows, with investors seeking safety in more stable economies. At the same time, a downturn in the economy of a particular nation can lead to capital outflows, as investors withdraw their funds to avoid any potential losses.
In conclusion, international capital flows continue to be an integral part of the global economy, as investors seek better returns on their investments. Developing countries rely heavily on the inflow of capital to fund economic growth and development and the direction and scale of these flows are heavily dependent on investor sentiment, which can move quickly and dramatically in response to events in the global economy.