The hierarchical model of seismology (HRSM) is a powerful tool for understanding earthquake processes, their associated hazards, and the impacts of seismic activity on human life and the environment. The HRSM combines a wide range of methodological approaches and scientific disciplines to support the study of earthquake activity, seismicity and attendant hazard in a unified framework.
Using readings from seismographs, the HRSM models the interaction of different tectonic plates with one another and the Earth’s crust. It is also able to resolve phenomena such as aftershocks and seismicity rate changes following a large earthquake, as well as recording and analyzing seismic pieces for information about faults and earthquake mechanism.
Building on the traditional strengths of seismology, the HRSM allows researchers to better study temporal trends in seismicity, analyze the occurrence and characteristics of earthquakes over broader time scales, and use space based and satellite methods to identify and monitor tectonic plates and structures.
The HRSM was developed to enable seismologists to produce a predictive model to forecast the likelihood of future earthquakes. While, in reality, forecasting the precise timing of future events is impossible, this model takes the best available geological data and makes estimates and forecasts based on it. By combining observational, historical and geological data, the HRSM produces a reading which can be interpreted in order to better anticipate future seismic activity.
At its core, the HRSM focuses on identifying patterns. By building meaningful connections between relationships between earthquake events in space and time, the model allows seismologists to develop better preparatory strategies for managing seismic risk and responding to seismic activity.
In addition, the HRSM is an important tool for interpreting earthquakes and determining the break down of parameters such as focal mechanism, magnitude and fault structure. By combining seismological data with the study of maps and aerial photographs of the affected area, the model can provide a detailed understanding of fault structures and the way in which seismic waves propagate in the affected region.
The HRSM is also an invaluable tool for modeling seismic hazard and vulnerability. By combining various types of forecasting models, such as the Poisson model, the HRSM can be used to provide different levels of earthquake hazard forecasts. In addition, the HRSMs ability to identify correlations between certain activities and seismic activity make it a powerful tool for modeling seismic hazard in specific areas and helping to target particular risk management strategies.
In summary, the hierarchical model of seismology can be used to describe the physics of seismic waves, to make short and long term predictions of earthquake activity, to model the effects of seismic risk, and to gauge the potential impacts of future seismic events. It has greatly increased the ability of seismologists to better anticipate seismic activity and understand the processes underlying earthquake mechanisms. The hierarchical model of seismology is an invaluable tool for understanding seismicity, for characterizing tectonic activity and for effectively managing seismic risk.