Inflation is a sustained increase in the cost of day to day goods and services - that is, the average prices of goods. It is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which looks at the price of a fixed basket of goods and services. High rates of inflation can be damaging to an economy, because it can make it difficult for businesses to forecast profits and for consumers to plan for their future expenditure.
The causes of inflation are complex and can vary depending on the country and economic cycle. Some of the most common causes include:
1. Demand-pull inflation
When there is a high level of aggregate demand in the economy, prices are pushed higher as businesses respond by increasing prices to take advantage of the strong demand. In the short term, this can lead to higher levels of economic growth, but in the long run it can create an inflationary environment.
2. Cost-push inflation
When the cost of producing goods and services increases, businesses will respond by passing on some of these costs to the consumer in the form of higher prices. Examples of cost-push inflation include fuel prices, labour costs and commodity prices.
3. Monetary shock inflation
Rapid and unexpected increases in the money supply can lead to inflation since the increased money supply leads to a fall in its value. A classic example of monetary shock inflation is the German hyperinflation of the 1920s.
Inflation can have a number of negative effects. It can adversely affect savers and pensioners as their savings lose their purchasing power when prices rise. Similarly, consumers can experience a fall in their standard of living if their wage growth does not keep pace with inflation. In addition, high levels of inflation can damage the economy because it reduces the certainty of business and consumer decision-making. For example, businesses may become less willing to invest due to the uncertainty of the future cost of their products.
The primary policy tool for controlling inflation is through the setting of interest rates. When inflation rises, the central bank can raise interest rates, which reduces consumer demand and thus reduces the rate of inflation. However, interest rate increases can have an adverse effect on the wider economy, so they are generally only used in more extreme cases of inflation.
Another policy tool is fiscal policy, which uses government spending and taxation to influence the level of consumer demand in the economy. Governments can, for example, reduce taxes to encourage consumer spending, but this can be inflationary as it leads to stronger demand for goods and services.
Ultimately, inflation is an important economic and policy consideration for governments, businesses and consumers around the world. It can have a significant impact on individuals and the wider economy, and so must be managed correctly to ensure a stable environment for businesses and consumers.