tiger paradox

The Tiger Paradox

The Tiger Paradox, also known as “Mere Addition Paradox”, is a thought experiment which explores the relationship between probability and logic. It goes something like this:

Suppose there are two tigers, one white and one black. Now, assume that the probability of a white tiger is 90%, while the probability of a black tiger is 10%.

Now, if you were to pick one of the tigers randomly, what would be the probability of it being a black one?

Most people would assume that the answer is 10% because that is the probability of a black tiger, however, that is wrong. In fact, the probability of picking a black tiger is actually 18%.

To understand why this is, we must first look at what probability actually is. Probability is a measure of how likely something is to happen. In this case, the probability of picking a black tiger is what we call the “complement” of the probability of picking a white tiger.

In other words, it is the percentage of the other thing that will happen. Therefore, the complement of 90% is 10%, which is the probability of picking a black tiger. However, the probability of picking either a white or black tiger is not 90% + 10%, but rather 100%, which means that the probability of picking a black tiger is actually 18%.

This paradox can be explained further by considering the three possible outcomes when selecting a tiger. We can either pick a white tiger, a black tiger or neither. Since the probability of selecting a white tiger is 90% and the probability of selecting a black tiger is 10%, that leaves 100-90-10=0 for the probability of neither.

In other words, the probability of either a white or a black tiger is 100%, which means that the probability of picking a black tiger is actually 18%.

The Tiger Paradox shows us that when considering probability and logic, one must be careful to consider all the possibilities. It can be easy to overlook the smaller probabilities when thinking in terms of two larger probabilities, as we have seen here. Therefore, it is important to consider all the factors and possibilities when looking at probability and make sure we are not overlooking a less obvious third option.

Tiger Paradox

The Tiger Paradox is an intriguing philosophical conundrum which states that it is impossible to know the true nature of reality with certainty. According to this paradox, we can never definitively know the true nature of the world because we can never be sure which of our beliefs are true and which are false.

To illustrate this paradox, imagine a hypothetical situation in which you are standing in a room with a tiger. You look at the tiger and you cant tell for sure whether it is real or not. It looks very real and you can certainly feel the presence of its immense power, but you cant be sure for certain. In this situation, the paradox states that it is impossible to know for certain whether the tiger is real or not.

We can apply this idea to our everyday lives as well. Just like the situation with the tiger, we are often met with unknowns and can never be 100% sure of the nature of reality. This uncertainty applies to multiple aspects of life, ranging from our beliefs and ideas to the physical world we inhabit.

The Tiger paradox helps us understand the importance of approaching reality with a healthy dose of skepticism. We should always take an evidence-based approach when evaluating different theories or ideas, and recognize that our understanding of reality is always incomplete.

In conclusion, the Tiger Paradox highlights the difficulty in attempting to understand the true nature of reality. We should never be too quick to believe in things without good evidence, and use our critical thinking skills to test and understand the true nature of reality.