Financial Repression Theory
Financial repression is a concept that has been gaining in popularity in recent years. The general idea is that governments use financial repression to reduce the cost of servicing their debt, while at the same time avoiding outright defaults. As the debt crisis of the last decade has amply demonstrated, governments have more incentive to pursue financial repression than to adopt real austerity measures, as the latter would have socially and politically toxic effects on the population.
Financial repression has typically been seen as a form of indirect taxation, whereby the government forces savers to pay subsidies to the public debt holders by keeping the real rate of interest artificially low (below the rate of inflation). In addition, governments can also use regulations and restrictions on the movements and capabilities of financial institutions, curtailing the effectiveness of the market forces and raising the cost of capital for private borrowers. This results in higher public debt servicing costs and/or lower public investment returns.
In addition to these direct measures, financial repression can also be achieved through indirect means. Macroeconomic policies, such as currency devaluations, inflation, or other measures of financial control, all serve to weaken the effective purchasing power of citizens’ savings. As a result, citizens are likely to hold a larger portion of their savings in the form of depreciating domestic currency, which effectively serves to suppress the demand for high quality, safe, domestic financial assets.
Financial repression can be seen as a form of risk-sharing between government and private sector investors. As the government is able to borrow at artificially low rates, private citizens must accept a lower rate of return on their savings—effectively transferring the risk associated with a potential default onto the private savers. In this sense, financial repression functions as an implicit form of social insurance, as governments leverages the savings of their citizens for the purpose of debt servicing.
At the same time, the implementation of financial repression does result in economic distortions. Public sector borrowers are able to borrow at artificially low rates, crowding out private sector borrowers who are forced to pay higher rates in order to access capital. This can negatively affect economic growth, as firms may be reluctant to invest or expand when access to external funding is limited.
In addition, financial repression can also have macroeconomic implications. As the overall stock of debt increases, so does the government’s interest payments, reducing the amount of money available for other purposes, such as public spending or investments. This can further distort economic activity, since public investments and expenditures made with the proceeds of financial repression become less attractive than those made with government revenue.
There have been many different forms of financial repression throughout the years, ranging from outright default on debt payments, to inflationary taxes and currency devaluations. As the risk of default on sovereign debt has increased in recent years, some governments have been turning to financial repression as an alternative way of reducing the cost of debt servicing without having to declare a formal default. While the effects of financial repression are generally beneficial to governments in the short term, it is important to note that the long-term economic impacts of this policy can be significant. As such, governments must take care to ensure that any policy of financial repression takes into account the potential long-term macroeconomic implications, and that appropriate measures are taken to minimize potential distortions.