German IFO Business Climate Index
The IFO Business Climate Index is a leading German macroeconomic indicator published by the Institute for Economic Research (IFO) every month. The survey gauges the sentiment of about 7,000 German businesses regarding their short-term business expectations. The survey results are broken down into three components: the current assessment, the expectations and the business climate.
The current assessment looks at the companies’ individual assessment of the current business situation. This component seeks to measure if businesses have improved or worsened their view of the current business environment.
The expectations component measures the sentiment of businesses regarding the near-term—in six months—expectations of sales and overall business activity. This component is seen as a measure of the companies’ willingness to invest and hire more employees, thereby gauging the economy’s health.
The business climate component is a combination of the first two components and serves as the main index. Companies are asked to grade their businesses’ current situation and their expectations on a scale of 0 to 100. The higher the index reading, the better is the overall business environment.
The German IFO Business Climate Index is one of the most respected leading indicators of the economy in the Eurozone. The index is widely used by analysts to predict future prospects of the German economy and has a strong correlation with the German stock market index, DAX.
When the IFO Business Climate Index rises, it usually indicates an economic expansion, while a decline usually signals an economic contraction. The IFO Business Climate Index can also have an influence on the decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) as business confidence is seen as a measure of future investment and consumption growth and inflationary pressures.
The German IFO Business Climate Index is a valuable tool for investors and policymakers. Analysts use it to infer the general sentiment in the German economy. The index also influences the decisions of financial policymakers and can also affect the direction of the Euro. The US dollar tends to climb against the Euro if the index suggests that the German economy is weakening. Thus, the IFO Business Climate Index provides an indication of the health of the German economy and has a direct impact on the direction of the Euro.