Introduction
The Delphi method is a forecast-making technique that relies on a panel of experts (typically five to nine experts) to come to a consensus opinion on a specific topic. It was first developed in the 1950s at the Rand Corporation by Eliyahu M. Goldratt and Olaf Helmer for the U.S. Air Force. Since then, the technique has been used in many different industries and settings, and is considered to be one of the most reliable approaches to making forecasts and coming to agreed-upon conclusions.
How it Works
The Delphi method functions in six stages. In the first phase, the researcher identifies a panel of experts and issues a written statement of the problem. The researcher then collects the experts initial opinions and ranks them, with emphasis being placed on differences between the opinions. The researcher then synthesizes the experts opinions, including the differences between them, and provides an aggregated view of their judgments. In the following rounds of the method (which may vary from two to four), the researcher provides the expert panel with the feedback from their previous responses, allowing them to review and revise their initial opinions. Finally, the researcher collects the experts responses, makes a comparative analysis of the differences between the experts, and reaches a consensus on the forecast.
Advantages
The Delphi method has several benefits over traditional survey-based approaches to forecasting. First, Delphi is a relatively quick and economical method that requires fewer resources than surveys or interviews. Second, the technique eliminates the potential for groupthink and bias that can be present in group decision making or interviews. Finally, the iterative nature of the method allows the researcher to identify the reasons behind any disagreements between the experts, allowing them to address those disagreements and reach a consensus opinion.
Disadvantages
Nevertheless, the Delphi method has been criticized in some areas. For example, the technique relies heavily on the subjective opinions of the experts involved in the process, which can lead to disagreements among the participants. Additionally, the method can be difficult to implement for complex issues or topics in which the experts may not have enough knowledge to provide meaningful responses.
Conclusion
The Delphi method has been used for many decades as an efficient and reliable way to come to consensus among a panel of experts. By aggregating the opinions of several experts and providing them with feedback from their previous responses, the technique allows the researcher to reach a meaningful conclusion relatively quickly. However, the technique does have some drawbacks, such as relying on the subjective opinions of the experts and having difficulty providing meaningful responses for complex topics.
