Introduction
International capital flow is a major indicator of the international financial system, and has a direct impact on different countries in terms of economic development, fiscal balance and exchange rate, which is of great significance for countries to understand the international financial environment and make reasonable economic policies. Short-term international capital, as the most active type of international capital, is an important factor that promotes the internationalization of capital and has become an indispensable part of international finance.
1.Definition
International capital flows refer to the flows of capital among countries. According to the maturity of the flow period,international capital can be divided into short-term capital flow,medium and long-term capital flow and foreign direct investment flow The short-term capital flowing between different countries involves a wide range of financial activities, including various types of assets and liabilities, such as currencies, bonds, bills, stocks, options and other financial instruments, which have different maturities and different risks. From the perspective of time, the range of short-term international capital flows is between one year and less than five years, and often includes cross-border debt and foreign exchange transactions. With the rapid development of international financial market, short-term capital flows have become common in the international market, and are important forms of international financial flows.
2. Characteristics of short-term international capital flows
Short-term international capital flows are characterized by their short term and large fluctuations, which is the most active part of international capital flows. At the same time,short-term capital flows also have characteristics of large transactions, high risk and high liquidity. Therefore,in addition to making profits for investors and enterprises, international capital flows also have certain potential risks, which need to be concerned about and avoided.
(1) Large fluctuations
The transaction volume of short-term international capital is large and its flow direction is easy to change, so its international price fluctuation is particularly obvious.
(2) Strong heterogeneity
In terms of investment composition, short-term capital flows include stocks, bonds and other financial instruments, making it highly heterogeneous. In terms of trading partners, short-term capital flows are also diverse, including state-owned enterprises, non-governmental organizations, international financial institutions, etc. In terms of investment maturity structure, short-term capital flows can be divided into different categories, including one to three months, three to six months, etc.
(3)High liquidity
High liquidity is a major advantage of short-term international capital flows. Good liquidity means that investors can quickly convert short-term capital flows into cash, with minimal loss.
(4)High risk
Although short-term international capital flows have advantages such as good liquidity, it also carries potential risks. Because the transaction scale and speed of short-term capital flows are large, coupled with its wide range of investment objects and high uncertainty, it can easily lead to market fluctuations and defaults.
3. Factors influencing international capital flows
International capital flows are affected by a variety of domestic and international factors. The main factors influencing international capital flows are as follows:
(1) Domestic factors
Domestic factors are related to domestic politics, economy and social environment. First of all, macroeconomic policies, such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, exchange rate policy and so on, directly affect domestic economic policies,and further affect international capital flows. Secondly, domestic institutional conditions, including taxation policy, financial system, financial market development and other economic system factors, also play an important role in international capital flows.
(2) International factors
International factors refer to factors that affect international capital flows from a global perspective. The most important factor is the international political environment. Political tension, international sanctions, war and other unstable factors will inevitably lead to capital flight, and the flow of international capital will be reduced. In addition, changes in the international financial market, changes in international commodity prices, foreign exchange rate changes and changes in international investment expectations also affect international capital flows.
4. The effect of short-term international capital flows
Short-term international capital flows mainly come from commercial banking activities. It is mainly used by commercial banks to obtain short-term capital resources, foreign exchange settlement and other activities in the international capital market.In addition,short-term international capital flows also include investments and speculation in foreign exchange futures and options, short selling of securities and other short-term investment activities. These activities of short-term capital flows can effectively supplement the lack of domestic capital resources and promote economic development.
Short-term international capital flows can bring certain impacts to domestic economy. On the one hand,short-term international capital flows help countries maintain macroeconomic stability, promote economic growth and improve the international image of the country. On the other hand,due to the strong fluctuations of the capital flows and the high liquidity,the exchange rate is easy to fluctuate,which can also cause certain instability of the country, and financial risks may occur in extreme cases. Moreover, due to the high liquidity, high efficiency and low costs, it is easy to trigger capital outflows in response to changes in macroeconomic environment,which further affects the exchange rate and economic development.
Conclusion
Short-term international capital flows are mainly composed of commerical banking activities, investments, and speculations. Short-term international capital flows largely determine the direction of international capital, affect countries financial and economic structures, and directly affect their economic development. As the most active form of international capital flows, short-term international capital flows need to be monitored and controlled. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen the management and control of short-term international capital flows, and take corresponding regulatory measures according to the specific situation.